An update on Snafudamus's predictions of MMO life and death.
Age of Conan: Will continue to wither on its vine. It will not release on Xbox 360. Some say it will still happen but let me say this, “it will not” and if it does I will eat my left shoe. Predicted subscribers by years end, 35,000-55,000 (I am being generous).
UPDATE: Well the game indeed went down hill but faster than I had pictured. Perhaps I was being to generous. It did not and will not release on X-Box 360 as predicted and the subscription numbers can't be confirmed. But they are very close but lower than I said they would be.
Warhammer Online: Will continue to enjoy moderate success but not make any strives forward in player base numbers. Predicted subscriber base by years end, 150,000.
UPDATE: WarHammer still chugs along but has shrank significantly. I believe I was too generous here as well when it came to subscribers. But only time will tell.
Pirates of the Burning Seas: Will be bought out by SOE and become a station pass game by years end. Predicted subscribers by years end, 2,500-5000 (Again I am being generous).
UPDATE: All predictions came true for this game. Too bad too really as it had a lot of potential. If the developers had only listened to their testers we may have seen a different out come.
Hellgate London and Tabula Rasa: Both will be a distant but stinging memory for those who purchased and had faith in them. R.I.P.
UPDATE: None needed other they will try to re-release Hellgate london. I guess its kind of a lets see if we can burn the public again experiment.
2009 MMO Predictions:
2009 will be the year WoW actually loses a customer, well maybe two.
UPDATE: Ya right....
Cryptic Studios: Releasing both Star Trek Online and Champions Online this year will make them the talk of the water cooler in many developers offices this year.
Champions Online: Being the more finished product of the two it will release first but not on time, June or perhaps July. Knowing Cryptic it will be a smooth launch and a nicely finished product. It will compete directly with City of Heroes but when DC Universe comes out it will have its work cut out for it. It is hard to pit virtually unknown super heroes against the likes of iconic DC universe heroes. I predict that Champions online sells 80,000 copies and will retain most of those for the first 30 days. After which it will retain 50% subscribers however they will only retain these subscribers until Star Trek Online is released. After which time Champions will dwindle to 15-25,000 subscribers by 2010.
UPDATE: I was off on the release date however the rest was spot on. The game was not even a flash in the pan. It's subscriber base is bitter and has been balaced and re balanced so many times customers no longer know what character they are playing from one day to the next.
Star Trek Online: It will release in 2009, perhaps as late as November. I have mixed feelings about Star Trek Online though, trepidations more than anything I guess. I predict here and now it will be yet another try to please too many people game. It will have ship combat and avatar adventures. It will also have or try to have PvP. Now the Star Trek universe is ideal for PvP especially in a RvR implementation, however Cryptic will not go this far. All information at this point is leading to one sad conclusion. It will have meaningless lossless consensual duels in a tiny part of space where nobody actually goes. By the way, I hung my head in sadness after completing that last sentence. All in all though it will please some Star Trek fans but dash the dreams of many against an unforgiving extra sharp rock. I am sure those looking for a space PvE game will love it. Star Trek Online will sell 250,000+ copies. Of those 250,000 customers 100,000-150,000 will stay beyond the free 30 days. It will remain a successful title for years to come but it will slowly lose subscribers. By 2011 it will be down to a total of 20,000 subscribers.
UPDATE: Again I was off on the release date ( I may have to clean the looking glass) However the rest seems very close. The PvP while not what I thought it would be is just as shallow and just as looked down upon by Cryptic Studios. PvP Ques that wisk you away to 1995 team death match style meaningless games. As for the PvE well thats another story all together. It appears very repeatative, pretty but repeatative. The Star Trek fans and fanbois have really unleashed some weapons grade elitistm upon the any disenters when it comes to this game. The disenters are lucky the discussions take place on a forum and not in person as the fans/fanbois would stab them to death like Julious Cesar on the senite floor if given half a chance.
Jump Gate Evolution: This I believe will be not only the first major release of the year but I also believe it will be one of the bigger successes of the year. Unfortunately it will not be as big as it could be. The game is very close to entering a larger phase of closed beta and really isn’t gaining a lot of momentum. It is not advertising enough. The game appears to be a good product and it will undoubtedly have a small cult following of former Jump Gate players, (the original game of which this is a sequel) but its subscriber base will not be huge. It will be successful but not huge. I personally am anticipating this game and hope to play it. I am hoping however this being a PvP game that it isn’t yet another one of these hold your hand whilst you go peepee games. From what I can see there is not going to be a death penalty and if that is the case it will not do as good as it could have. People play PvP games to hurt other people, not slightly inconvenience them. This game will release in good shape and be successful enough to keep its head above water and maintain a proper MMOG evolution. JGE will sell 150,000-200,000 copies and It will retain 98% of them for the first 30 days. After the free time is up those that can hack it will stay, that number will be around 80,000-150,000 subscribers that stay with the game for 6-12 months minimum.
UPDATE: Well the looking glass may have been correct at the time of this prediction but fate has moved in and the future of JGE is murky at best. It has both dropped off the radar and is lurking in the shadows for the time being. I will attempt another reading on this game soon.
Star Gate Worlds: Unfortunately Snafudomis has bad news for Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment. SGW will be canceled citing the bad economy as the reason. If it somehow is able to borrow the money it needs to finish the project it will not release until 2010 and even then it will be a microscopic release that will have the life span of a fruit fly. Even the launch of the new Star Gate television series “Star Gate Universe” will not breath enough life back into Star Gate Worlds empty sails. The title should have gone to a bigger more committed company. R.I.P.
UPDATE: Prediction spot on for SGW.
Huxley: Announced with great fanfare originally and claiming that it would release on both PC and Xbox will continue to weave tails of its coming epic release but will be sold off to some Asian company so they can make a grinder out of it. R.I.P.
UPDATE: Again spot on here. Sorry Huxley fans.
SOE: Sony Online Entertainment will release a few products this year, most notably DC Universe and The Agency. Both will be typical SOE releases, minimal advertising and they will rely on their Station Pass inhabitants to flip the bill as usual. Chances are both may be micro transaction economy based games and every other Station Pass game that SOE thinks they can ring 14 cents more out of will become micro transaction based games as well. “But mooooommmmm I neeeeeeeed $4 for the hat with the feather in it that makes me have +2 to my identifying ugly hats skill”. Long live Asia and its horrifying effect on the gaming world.
UPDATE: Well 2009 did not see the release of DC Universe or the Agency but they will both release in 2010 as far as I can tell. The rest of the forecast still holds true I believe.
